Refinancing on the rise, confidence “Ok”: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian
GUEST OBSERVER
Home loans: The number of loans (commitments) for people who are buying or building homes to live in (owner-occupiers) fell by 0.9 per cent in March after rising by 0.9 per cent in February. The number of refinancing transactions rose by 8 per cent.
The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes rose by 1.7 percent in March after a rise of 2.7 per cent in February. The value of loans to build new homes stood at a record high $3.59 billion.
The average home loan cross Australia stood at $357,500 in March, up 5.9 per cent on a year ago, but down 7.4 per cent in the past four months.
Consumer sentiment:The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence rose by 8.5 per cent in May to 103.2 after sliding by 4 per cent in April. The confidence index is up 0.8 per cent on a year ago. A reading of 100 is the dividing line separating optimism from pessimism.
The housing finance data has implications for banks, building material suppliers and retailers. The consumer confidence data is important for retailers and consumer-facing businesses. Building & building material companies are affected by dwelling starts including Boral, James Hardie, Adelaide Brighton, Brickworks, AV Jennings Limited, Devine Limited and Beacon Lighting.
What does it all mean?
The latest data onthe housing sector could be classified as somewhat old news given that it predates the Reserve Bank interest rate cut last week. What it does do is provide a useful barometer for housing activity earlier this year. And in that context housing activity remains solid. The value of loans to build new homes stood at a record high $3.59 billion. There is a healthy pipeline of work, with owner occupiers likely to dominate home building and buying.
Interestingly the number of home loan refinancing transactions lifted sharply up by 8 per cent in March. And the proportion of fixed rate loans jumped to 14.9 per cent - the highest reading in 16 months. The intense competition by lenders has resulted in home owners shopping around for the best rates on offer and more are locking in those cheaper rates. The lift in refinancing will provide additional savings to household budgets – injecting fresh spending power into the economy. No doubt the latest interest rate cut will spur another round of refinancing although the increasing likelihood of further cuts to the cash rate may result in less fixed rates being taken up.
The monthly consumer confidence data is now merely useful as a check against the timelier weekly survey. The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey has the same number of survey respondents as the monthly series, has been running over the same number of years and covers the same questions but is conducted each week. And what is clear from both surveys is that confidence levels are a little higher than where they were a month ago.
Importantly the weekly consumer confidence survey provides a better picture of the shifting landscape in regards to the Federal budget, latest interest rate cut and movement in the Australian dollar. And in that regard confidence levels are healthy although it is unlikely to translate through a substantial lift in spending. The weekly confidence data will be analysed more closely given the Federal Election campaign currently underway.
What do the figures show?
Housing finance - number
The number of new owner-occupier housing loans (commitments) fell by 0.9 percent in March after rising by 0.9 percent in February. Excluding therefinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 6.7 percent.
Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes fell by 2 percent in March; loans to buy newly-erected dwellings fell by 5.2 percent; and loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) fell by 0.5 percent. The number of refinancing transactions rose by 8 percent.
Housing finance - value
The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) fell by 0.2 percent in March after a 2.2 percent increase in February. Owner-occupier loans fell by 1.2 percent while investment loans rose by 1.5 percent.
The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes rose by 1.7 percent in March after a rise of 2.7 percent in February. The value of loans to build new homes stood at a record high $3.59 billion.
Housing finance – other statistics
The proportion of first-time buyers in the home loan market fell from 14.6 percent to 14.2 percent in March – a 12 year low. (However the figures take into account refinancing loans and as such the figures may misrepresent the true situation). The proportion of fixed rate loans rose from 13.2 percent to 14.9 percent in March. And the average home loan across Australia stood at $357,500 in March, up 5.9 percent on a year ago, but down 7.4 percent in the past four months.
Consumer sentiment:
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence rose by 8.5 percent in May to 103.2 after sliding by 4 percent in April. The confidence index is up 0.8 percent on a year ago.
The current conditions index rose by 4.2 percent while the expectations index rose by 11.6 percent.
All five components of the index rose in May:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up by 3.2 percent;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was up by 7.2 percent;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up by 13.2 percent;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up by 14.8 percent;
The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up by 4.9 percent.
Gender & demographics: Men (index reading of 107.8, up 8.6 percent) were more optimistic than Women 98.8, up 8.3 percent). The sentiment index for young people fell by 3.4 percent to 105.9 in May. Across the other demographics: 25-44 years (index 110.4, up by 11.1 percent); 45 years plus (index 97.5, up 9.9 per cent).
Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? – Index up 12.1 percent in the month but down 6.4 per cent on the year.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator onthe housing market.
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
It’s important not to ‘over-think’ consumer confidence. For most punters, the Aussie dollar, interest rates, petrol prices, home prices and the job market are the key factors determining whether someone is positive or negative on supposedly ‘economic’ issues
The Reserve Bank will look to next week’s jobs data to gauge how the labour market is tracking. CommSec expects a further rate cut in coming months.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec