Values rising in more than 80% of Australian house and unit markets: CoreLogic

Commentary from CoreLogic's Head of Residential Research Australia Eliza Owen

CoreLogic's interactive Mapping the Market Report shows 82.4% of the 4,506 house and unit suburbs analysed nationally saw values rise in the three months to October.

Conversely, 792 (17.6%) house and unit suburbs declined in value in the past three months 

Capital city markets are running at very different speeds, with Perth the strongest market while Hobart and Darwin are flat or falling.

Australia's housing market upswing has become more widespread, with four in five house and unit markets analysed nationally recording a rise in values over the past three months. 

CoreLogic's interactive Mapping the Market tool, updated with data to the end of October 2023, found 83.1% of house markets and 80.6% of unit markets saw values rise in the past three months. 

This broadly reflects continued growth in the Australian housing market, despite high interest rates and weakening economic conditions. 

It’s often noted that Australia is not ‘one housing market’ and we’re currently seeing increased diversity in capital city market performance. That’s reflected in city-wide growth rates, the various levels of supply that’s available in some cities over others, and it’s reflected in the different suburbs we analyse in this report. 

At one end of the spectrum, suburb-level analysis reflects the extraordinary growth trend across cities like Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane. In these cities, total listings levels  are low, city-wide capital growth is running a bit over 1% per month, and migration  trends from both overseas and interstate favour more housing demand." 

Capital cities running at high speed 

In Brisbane, each of the 162 unit markets analysed saw values rise in the past three months, while of the 305 house markets, only four saw a quarterly decline. These were the higher-end suburbs of Kalinga and Windsor as well as the more affordable  Redland spots of Macleay Island and Lamb Island.  

In Adelaide, only 3% of house markets saw a decline in the quarter, but there was a notable portion of unit markets in decline (13.4%, or 9 of the 67 suburbs analysed).  

In Perth, there was one suburb where house values fell in the past three months, which was Mount Hawthorn, and Ms Owen said even there, the house market sustained only a mild decline of -0.2%.  

Remarkably, 98.1% of the house and unit markets across Perth rose in value over the  past three months, and 96.3% of suburb dwelling markets in Perth were at record high  values at the end of October."

Capital cities running at mid-speed 

Running at ‘mid-speed’ are Sydney and Melbourne dwellings, where city-wide capital growth was 2.5% and 1.2%, respectively in the past three months.  

The pace of growth across both markets has slowed from the middle of the year when the June rate-hike surprised financial markets and many economists’  predictions.

Currently, growth in Sydney markets are strongest across relatively expensive house markets, with Five Dock houses topping the three-month capital growth ranking (up  8.4%). In Melbourne, it was the more mid-priced unit market of Moorabbin, which topped the list, increasing 7.4%.

Portion of suburbs recording quarterly and annual falls in values 

Capitals that are flat or falling 

In Hobart and Darwin, 41% of house markets saw a quarterly decline.  

Ms Owen said overall, Hobart home values ticked 0.3% higher in the past three months, but capital growth trends have been shaky, and total listings are trending around 47% higher than the previous five-year average.  

"The city has seen value falls recorded in three of the past six months. Declines across  Hobart houses were led by a -3.2% fall across the relatively expensive market of  Sandford.  

"Canberra has also seen relatively flat capital growth trends, and particular weakness in the unit market. 32 of 39 unit markets analysed in Canberra saw a quarterly decline,  with the steepest fall in O’Connor, down -4.1%," she said. 

Across regional markets, conditions are equally diverse, with Regional Queensland the strongest house market and Regional SA the best performing unit market.