Hotspots

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Australia’s largest body of professional buyer’s agents is warning homebuyers and investors to ‘think local’ when it comes to property predictions for 2016.
It has urged buyers to base their buying decisions on supply and demand rather than potential hotspots.
The Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia (REBAA) president Rich Harvey listed some no go zones in capital cities across Australia.
He noted conflicting property predictions suggesting prices in various locations will rise or fall could confuse buyers into making the wrong investment decisions.
“The problem with any forecast is trying to sum up the direction of a diverse range of property markets into a single figure or hotpot,” said Harvey.
“Australia has over 15,000 suburbs and there are more than 700 suburbs in Sydney, more than 540 in Melbourne and around 450 in Brisbane.
“So to say that Sydney will rise by four per cent can give a misleading perception to a novice investor thinking that buying an over-priced off-the-plan apartment in Zetland will actually see price growth in their property.
“That poor investor may well see a five per cent decline in the value of their property due to the rapid increase in supply in that local market.”
Harvey recommends buyers and investors need to look at the individual drivers of supply and demand within a smaller zone and at a suburb level.
“While the overall predictions give you some comfort that property is a good asset class, it is far better to think long-term and become an expert in the local housing market and make informed decisions accordingly,” he said.
“In markets where values are escalating quickly, it’s a potential minefield for buyers who feel under pressure to buy.
“Buyers need to ensure they understand the local growth drivers of supply and demand and that they are in the right price pocket for that particular location. “A buyer’s agent can help analyse the data quickly using the best valuation tools available and guide buyers through the property maze with minimum stress.”
The REBAA recommends the following property investments to avoid in 2016:
Brisbane Brisbane Avoid: High density apartments in the CBD, West End and Fortitude Valley. Recommend: Character houses in low density, established areas with good schools, transport and lots of renovation activity.
Sydney
 Avoid: High density off-plan apartments in Mascot, Zetland, and some pockets around Parramatta and Rhodes with potential for oversupply as record building approvals take shape. Sydney still fundamentally under-supplied, but a short-term spike in units coming to market will depress rents. 
Recommend: Blue chips suburbs with strong growth potential: Eastern suburbs North Shore, inner west. Suburbs with lifestyle appeal, new transport infrastructure, growing population and continuing gentrification.
ACT 
Avoid: High density apartments either existing or off the plan in most areas. 
Recommend: Small boutique existing townhouse developments. Homes in established areas with access to good schools - inner north, inner south, Belconnen and Woden areas.
Melbourne 
Avoid: High density apartment blocks. Much like the Sydney market, avoid areas like Docklands and possibly Fisherman’s Bend and other areas that are being oversupplied with new, high-rise apartment blocks. 
Recommend: Low density developments that are well built with manageable ongoing running costs. Land is in short supply, so if you can afford to buy property in a good, well-serviced location with some land, then do that.
South Australia 
Avoid: Off-the-plan apartments in the Adelaide CBD. 
Recommend: Properties with development potential in middle-ring suburbs continue to increase in popularity. Also character properties with renovation potential in good suburbs on the “fringe” of upmarket established locations.
Tasmania 
Avoid: Lifestyle properties away from major population centres for income investment. Great if you plan to live there but not the best choice for a good performing long-term investment.
Recommend: Character properties in the inner city Hobart suburbs such as North Hobart, New Town and West Hobart are in very high demand with buyers out stripping supply. This shortage of supply is impacting on higher prices. A wellpriced renovator in these areas could be extremely beneficial. Also buying on the fringes of these suburbs is worth considering.
Western Australia 
Avoid: Developing suburbs on the outer northern and southern metropolitan fringes of Perth where there is currently an oversupply which is expected to continue for the next 12 to 18 months. Likewise the Perth unit market is looming for an oversupply for the next 12 months to two years. 
Recommend: Houses in a 10-20km radius of Perth with reasonable land holdings and rentable older houses. Likewise suburbs where there have been zoning changes and infrastructure spending can still provide opportunities for good buying. 
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Property investor no-go warning: Avoid Brisbane CBD, the Valley, Docklands and Zetland: Rich Harvey

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The word “hotspot” has become one of the most over-used in Australian real estate.
Many times the word is mis-used and downright abused.
Last month I spoke at a seminar in Melbourne hosted by The Property Education Company, where Greville Pabst from WBP Property Group gave a well-informed presentation about identifying good investments. He commented that there is no such creature as a “hotspot” and that investors should not waste time searching for them.
And I would tend to agree with him, in terms of the definition many people apply to word – places that show short-term flash-in-the-pan spurts of price growth, such as mining towns which have been a recent graveyard for many investors.
The areas I identify as hotspots are places I believe will show superior growth over time, taking a long-term view.
In recent weeks there has been considerable publicity for a Housing Industry Association report which, according to media reports, identified the nation’s leading “housing hotspots”.
It’s importance for investors to understand what is really meant in this instance and the nature of these places. I would suggest that while these are hotspots according to the HIA definition, they are usually not good places to buy for capital growth. 
Darwin’s daily newspaper, the NT News, went overboard with parochial enthusiasm when it reported that “two housing markets in the Northern Territory rank among the strongest in the country”. Another media outlet reported that Pimpama on the northern fringe of the Gold Coast had been identified as “Australia’s top housing hotspot”.
It’s crucial to understand the nature of the HIA report, which is suggested by the report title – Population and Residential Building Hotspots 2017.
Essentially this report reveals the leading areas for new residential construction around the nation. These are places where there’s land available for new dwelling construction. You’re not going to find any middle-ring city suburbs in this report, because such places are built out and any new construction is likely to be apartments.
Locations make this report by virtue of high building approvals and high percentage population growth (usually from a very low base).
A “hotspot” is defined as a local area where population growth exceeds the national rate (which was 1.4 percent in the year to June 2016) and where the value of residential building approvals is more than $20 million.
The area in which Pimpama sits – the precinct between Brisbane and the Gold Coast – is always likely to feature in a report like this, because it has lots of largely empty land ripe for new development and it sits between two growing cities.
The two Darwin locations which the NT News claimed were among the nation’s leading housing markets are two new suburbs, Zuccoli and Lyons. The paper said Zuccoli was “the third strongest housing market in Australia” - which was seriously misleading.
The percentage growth rates for population in these places are high because they have been newly-created as suburbs only recently.
So are these good places to invest for capital growth? In most cases the answer is emphatically no. I would rate many of these locations as no go zones. The existence of ample land for ongoing new development means there’s no shortage of supply and often the capital growth rates are poor. Indeed developers often pile into these areas and create oversupply, which means prices fall.
The Gold Coast has been a national leader on population growth for decades but a poor performer on capital growth because developers periodically flood the market with new product. This is especially true in the high-rise unit market – the median apartment price in Surfers Paradise today is pretty much the same as it was 10 years ago – i.e. zero growth in the past decade.
Another example is provided by a new growth area which challenged the Gold Coast’s status as the leading LGA in the nation for population growth – Wyndham City in the south-west of the Melbourne metropolitan area. This happened because there’s lots of former rural land available for new suburbs there.
Six or so years ago widespread publicity about growth in Wyndham City caused the inevitable stampede by developers who quickly generated oversupply. Vacancies rose and prices fell. Developers employed marketeering companies to flog the unwanted product to distant investors, many of whom regretted believing the publicity about this being a national housing hotspot.
Zuccoli in the Darwin region is the opposite of a good place to buy. Darwin’s market has been in reverse for the past four years, with prices and rents falling, and the Zuccoli postcode currently has a 7 percent vacancy rate, according to SQM Research. CoreLogic data suggests the median price fell 17 percent in the past year.
The Pimpama postcode, ranked by the HIA report as the nation’s No.1 hotspot, has a vacancy rate around 5 percent. And the average annual growth rate for house prices over the past decade is less than 1 percent, similar to the performance of apartments in Surfers Paradise, for similar reasons – rampant supply has overpowered all the other positive growth drivers.
Construction hotspots, yes. Investment hotspots, no.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Hotspot or no-go zone? Terry Ryder

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The key to prosperity in property investment is buying in the right places.
It's clear from the figures I presented in my <a href="terry-ryder/36506-location-and-long-term-growth-are-what-matter" target="_blank">previous column</a> that capital city price growth has been ordinary at best in the past 10 years. Darwin (averaging 8% a year) and Perth (7%) have been okay, but five of the eight capitals have growth rates no better than wages growth or the rate of inflation.
Sydney has averaged just 3.8% per year in the past decade, despite the lift in the past 18 months.
Would you invest in real estate on those numbers? I would suggest no – not if those growth numbers applied everywhere.
The secret is finding places likely to deliver out-performance. To give you an idea of what's possible, here are some of the results of places we identified one to two years ago as good places to buy for future growth.
Toowoomba in regional Queensland is a standout example. In 2012, I started shouting about its prospects to rise from ordinary performance to out-performance. In the past 12 months, the potential has started to be realised.
Many Toowoomba suburbs, which have long-term growth averages of around 6% per year, have recorded double-digit growth in the past 12 months.
East Toowoomba, Harristown, Mount Lofty, Newtown, North Toowoomba, South Toowoomba and Toowoomba City have all registered growth ranging between 12% and 19% in 12 months.
You would not have poured money into Toowoomba based on its historic performance, but with real estate investment it's the future that matters.
Another Queensland regional city with a poor recent history but a glittering future is Cairns.
Some Cairns markets, particularly unit markets, still have pricing lower than five years ago. Others have averaged less than 1% per year in growth since 2009. That reflects weakness in the local economy and developer over-supply.
The future, however, looks very different. Cairns is rapidly transitioning from an economy overly reliant on tourism to a place where a massive infrastructure spend is broadening and strengthening the base.
That, plus previous price decline and the highest rental yields in Australia, has made Cairns an attractive proposition for investors.
In the past 12 months, Cairns has started to deliver. In terms of median price growth (based on Australian Property Monitors data), here are some of the results in Cairns suburban markets:
<ul>
<li>Bungalow houses up 18%</li>
<li>Edge Hill houses up 14%</li>
<li>Woree houses up 16%</li>
<li>Yorkey's Knob houses up 15%</li>
<li>Cairns City units up 19%</li>
<li>Earlville units up 19%</li>
<li>Edge Hill units up 12%</li>
<li>Holloways Beach units up 27%</li>
<li>Manunda units up 30%</li>
<li>Woree units up 27%</li>
<li>Yorkey's Knob units up 23%</li>
</ul>
In 2012 and 2013, I suggested the Swan City precinct of Perth as a place with appeal from the collective viewpoints of location, lifestyle, affordability and infrastructure spending. It's shown pretty solid growth in the years since - including, in the past 12 months, double-digit growth in Aveley (14%), Ballajura (11%), Caversham (15%), Lockridge (12%) and The Vines (13%), well ahead of city averages.
Monash City has appealed as a middle market location with growth prospects in Melbourne. About a year ago we included it in our Top 10 reports and since then multiple suburbs in this municipality have delivered double-digit growth in median prices, ranging from 12% in Clayton to 23% in Glen Waverley – well above the average (about 8%) for metropolitan Melbourne in the past 12 months.
There are many other examples, spread across the major cities and regional Australia.
It serves to highlight the shallowness of most commentary about Australian real estate, especially by economists who continue to speak in terms such as: "Australian house prices have risen 9% in the past year".
In most places, the growth has been less than that – but in select locations with the right growth drivers, the upside has been considerably more.
Finding them is the essence of good investing.
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Spotting an out-performer

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Real estate consumers would be better informed if media could let go of its obsession with median price movements and auction outcomes in the two biggest cities as the barometer of all things real estate.
The state of the nation, in terms of housing markets, is too often seen through the prism of the property price indexes and clearance rates for Sydney and Melbourne.
Not only does this ignore the different scenarios occurring in other important markets, but it tells us very little that’s useful.
Investors essentially want to know where prices are going to move before they move. A report telling consumers how much prices moved in the recent past simply tells consumers where they should  have bought a year ago.
Equally a report that Sydney’s clearance rate is regularly topping 70% doesn’t tell us where in Sydney people should be buying and it’s useless information if you’re interested in some other part of the country.
There are much more useful barometers that actually provide clues about where prices might rise before they do so. Sales volumes often provide evidence about where prices are likely to move, up or down, and that’s why I put so much time and effort into publishing my Price Predictor Index every quarter.
Trends in the rental market are also a useful indicator of what might happen with prices. There’s ample research that shows that rents often rise for a period before prices start to react. And rents rise because vacancies are low. We saw that scenario play out in Sydney (before the recent correction) and also in Hobart where prices remain strong, with vacancies the lowest in capital city Australia.
I note that Simon Pressley of Propertyology, a researcher whose work deserves respect and attention, has recently reported on the importance of vacancy rates as an indicator of future price trends. I certainly agree with Pressley that low vacancies and strong rentals can be a precursor to a period of price growth.
With that in mind, I’m always interested in precincts where vacancies are super tight, particularly when those places have other solid credentials.
And you have look beyond the generalised figures published in mainstream media. Sydney might have a vacancy rate around 3.5%, but there are local precincts with tight rental markets. Postcode 2168 in the Liverpool LGA has a vacancy rate of just 1.8% and includes a range of suburbs where affordable (by Sydney standards) suburbs are attracting first-home buyers and others. 
Melbourne, where markets are on the boil again, has many local precincts where rental markets are very tight. In the Moreland LGA, most postcodes have vacancy rates well under 2%. The Brunswick West postcode is currently 1.2%, according to SQM Research, while the postcode covering Coburg and Coburg North is 1.3%.
These are real estate locations with good bones and it’s worth noting that during the recent period when Melbourne prices generally were falling, many of the apartment markets throughout the Moreland LGA continued to achieve growth in their median prices – and the tight rental market has kept yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, which is above average for Melbourne.
Rental markets are even tighter in nearby Darebin – most postcodes have vacancy rates below 1.5%. The Northcote postcode is 1% and the Thornbury postcode is 0.9%. In Preston, the vacancy rate is 1.3%, the median price for apartments has risen in the past year, and the median rental yield is 4.6%.
As Melbourne generally recovers from the post-boom correction, locations like these are going to be strong performers.
One reason that Ballarat has been delivering such strong price growth in recent years is the strength of its rental market. Vacancies have been under 3% for the past five years and currently average around 1.5%. Many suburbs have had double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
The revival of many regional Queensland markets has been heralded by big improvements in their rental markets. Mackay provides a striking example. When the resources investment boom evaporated, vacancies rose in Mackay and prices inevitably fell. But now vacancies are around 1.5%, rental yields of 5.5%, 6% and higher are available, and prices are now responding.
There are numerous examples across the nation – but you’re not going to find out about them by reading our metropolitan newspapers.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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How to find real estate locations with good bones: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Most of the strongest markets in the nation are now in regional Australia. And regional NSW is the strongest market jurisdiction in the nation.
The key point is that regional New South Wales is moving in the opposite direction to Sydney. While there are now few rising markets in the state capital, there are growth locations spread across the regions of NSW.
Hotspotting’s Winter 2018 survey for The Price Predictor Index reveals that a record 38 local government areas have growth markets – a total of 60 suburbs or towns with rising sales activity.
1. Newcastle and the Hunter Region form a compelling growth precinct. Suburbs in the City of Newcastle have had very strong price growth (most have had double-digit growth and some have risen 20% or more) in the 12 months.
Now the momentum has shifted to neighbouring Lake Macquarie and locations in the nearby Hunter Region near Newcastle (including Maitland, Cessnock, Singleton and Muswellbrook).
Sales in the suburb of Rutherford in the Maitland LGA have been 64, 75, 70, 91, 86, 99 and 102 in the past seven quarters, while Medowie in the Port Stephens LGA have risen from around 40 a year ago to 55 in the latest quarter.
2. Muswellbrook and Singleton continue to improve after the previous downturn caused by over-development and a downturn in the coal industry.
Muswellbrook’s quarterly sales have risen from 41 to 52 to 57 to 75 over 12 months. Singleton and Singleton Heights combined previously had 35 to 45 sales per quarter but in the past 12 months quarterly sales have been 55, 58, 88 and 86.
Following the merger of the Wyong and Gosford LGAs to form the Central Coast LGA, this municipality is now a significant market in regional NSW. The sales patterns suggest this market has probably passed its peak – there are a large number of Plateau markets, places where sales activity has tapered off at levels below the peak.
But sales growth in the recent past has created strong growth in median house prices in the last 12 months, including in Narara (13%), North Gosford (16%), Terrigal (10%), Toukley (15%), Umina Beach (17%) and Wyoming (16%).
3. Queanbeyan on the ACT border continues to stand out as an affordable growth alternative to Canberra. The LGA of Queanbeyan-Palerang has multiple suburbs/towns with upwardly-mobile sales activity. Quarterly sales in Queanbeyan (the suburb) have been 38, 40, 50 and 59 in the past year.
Queanbeyan is closer to central Canberra than many parts of the ACT, has more affordable prices than most Canberra suburbs and benefits from first-home-buyer incentives available in NSW.
Other regional centres to stand out as above-average markets in regional NSW include Albury, Armidale, Bathurst, Dubbo, Grafton Gunnedah, Lismore, Orange, Parkes, Tamworth and Wagga Wagga.
A number of regional towns that would normally not attract much attention from investors are also rising, including Griffith, Inverell, Kempsey, Leeton and Tumut.
A standout is Merimbula on the far south coast of NSW. Quarterly sales have been 36, 46, 47, 56, 55 and 60 in the past 18 months and the median price has risen 18% in the past year.4
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
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The three strongest property markets in NSW: Terry Ryder

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After several years of investors achieving easy growth in our two biggest cities, the national real estate landscape has changed. 
Investors need to look elsewhere to find the upwardly-mobile markets, and it’s not so easy to find them because mainstream media is writing about the Sydney-Melbourne downturn and generally ignoring the rising markets in other parts of the nation.
Hotspotting’s new Top 10 Best Buys reports highlights the new growth markets, which are occurring in our smaller cities and the regions.
Here are five possibilities, many of them places you might not have thought of …
Belconnen District, ACT
I’ve often referred to Canberra as the Goldilocks of Australian real estate - not too hot, not too cold, just right. It continues to show a high level of consistency, especially with sales activity. 
But, amid that familiar consistency, there is evidence of recent uplift. The Winter 2018 survey for The Price Predictor Index identifies an increasing number of Canberra suburbs with growth trajectories. 
That quarterly survey also shows that the Belconnen District is the clear market leader in Canberra, by a considerable margin. It has seven rising suburbs – including Bruce, Florey, Flynn, Holt and Macgregor - and others with steady sales performance.
The strong sales data reflects other statistics depicting a strong Canberra market. Vacancies remain below 1 percent (only Hobart has lower vacancies among the capital cities), rents are rising strongly and there is evidence of solid price growth, notably in the Top End suburbs with median prices above $1 million.
Some forecasters predict Canberra will lead the capital cities on price increases in the next few years, with Belconnen suburbs likely to be at the forefront of the growth.
Port Adelaide precinct, South Australia
Port Adelaide may have missed out on the AFL finals, but its real estate market looks like a winner.
The Port Adelaide Enfield LGA is now one of the busiest markets in the SA capital, with a number of its suburbs attracting rising demand.
Defence Force contracts totalling $89 billion and other government initiatives are set to launch Port Adelaide into a new stratosphere.
The Osborne Naval Shipyard is undergoing a $535 million upgrade to accommodate the building of 40 new Defence craft; 500 public servants are being moved into the precinct; and a new rail spur will link the Port’s commercial centre and the Dock One residential precinct to the Adelaide CBD.
These and several smaller projects are creating much-needed jobs, turning historic Port Adelaide into a thriving residential, commercial and tourist destination.
Bendigo, Victoria
Bendigo (pictured top) has long been one of Victoria’s key regional centres, with growth thanks to its steady local economy, proximity to Melbourne and good transport links to the capital – especially now the $5 billion Regional Rail Link has been completed.
Its economic prospects have improved with the $630 million re-development of Bendigo’s hospital, private sector plans to develop the city’s first master-planned residential community, and the awarding of a $1.3 billion Defence contract to a Bendigo-based business. 
Bendigo benefits economically from a number of major companies which are based locally but perform nationally – including Thales, the company that received the Defence contract recently.
It has had steady long-term price growth (averaging around 5% per year) in its housing market but it remains affordable, with solid rental yields available for investors (most suburbs have median yields between 4.5 and 5.5 percent). 
And recently, sales activity has increased, boosted by both home-buyers and investors out of Melbourne seeking affordability and growth. Most of Bendigo’s suburbs have median house prices between $250,000 and $380,000 – and prices are now starting to rise.
Stirling LGA, WA
The Stirling LGA is one of four precincts in the Perth metropolitan area leading the recovery in the Perth property market, following the city’s four-year real estate downturn. 
Properties across this precinct maintained a steadier performance than most Perth locations throughout the recent economic downturn - and now 10 of its suburbs have rising markets, including Carine, Doubleview, Gwelup, Innaloo, Joondanna and Tuart Hill..
The City of Stirling offers a leisurely seaside lifestyle, being home to the internationally renowned Scarborough Beach. Trendy bars and cafes impart a youthful vibrancy, attracting a steady stream of 20–40-year-olds. 
Further adding to the region’s appeal are the shopping and education facilities, coupled with good transport links to the Perth CBD.
The Stirling LGA has some affordable suburbs with medians in the $300,000s, but most suburbs are middle-market areas with typical prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s.
Queanbeyan, NSW
The proximity of Queanbeyan (now part of the newly-formed Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council area) to the nation’s capital is paying dividends for local property markets. 
The region is experiencing strong population growth, unemployment is low, new housing estates are under construction and there are plans for the nearby Canberra International Airport to become a 24-hour freight hub.
But the most appealing aspect of Queanbeyan is its affordability relative to Canberra, with median prices for both houses and units below those in the national capital. It’s also helped by NSW incentives for first-home buyers.
Property sales activity in Queanbeyan increased in 2016, leading it to become a standout region for growth, and the uplift continued in 2017 and into 2018.
With Canberra forecast to be one of the nation’s leading cities for price growth in the next few years, Queanbeyan’s links to the capital are expected to boost the local market.
Good rental yields are another attraction, with several suburbs having median yields around 4–5% for houses and 5.5% for units.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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