Chinese Investment

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76310/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Chinese investors are often blamed for Australia’s escalating house prices but a number of factors might mean the demand will drop off in coming years.</p>
<p>A recently released report found investment in residential real estate by the Chinese is slowing. As the gap in rental yields between the two countries closes and house prices increase, Australian residential real estate is beginning to look less attractive. The lifting of restrictions on Chinese urban residential property ownership and personal investment monetary restrictions may also play a part.</p>
<p>China has 1,340 high net worth individuals and 568 billionaires. Their combined net worth is equivalent to Australia’s GDP.</p>
<p>Many Chinese investors have access to both legitimate and hidden income and wealth and seek to invest both in overseas real estate. This is at a time when China is in the grip of its own housing affordability crisis.</p>
<p>Why Australia has seemed attractive</p>
<p>In 2015, Chinese investors ploughed approximately A$6.8 billion into Australian commercial and residential real estate. Current Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) policies channel incoming real estate investment funding into new dwellings, creating additional jobs in construction and supporting economic growth.</p>
<p>Though temporary Australian residents may be required to sell older residential property when they leave Australia, many foreign nationals are able to retain, rent out, sell or live in newly constructed dwellings. This is a major draw card for Chinese investment in new residential buildings.</p>
<p>Other pull factors include Australia’s stable financial institutions, compared to China,, well regulated land title system, buoyant real estate market, high capital gains rates in major cities and lower deposit requirements.</p>
<p>Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) may keep an eye on these factors when considering new foreign investment in the housing market, but it struggles to counteract the push effect of Chinese property law restrictions and investor needs.</p>
<p>Factors in China at play</p>
<p>Conditions in China’s economy and regulatory environment also push Chinese investors to focus on overseas markets. The depreciation of the Chinese currency is a significant force. As this currency is devalued, Chinese investors reconsider what and where they can afford to purchase.</p>
<p>Australia’s rental yields of 2-3% in major cities are twice that of China’s. Legislative changes to residential property investment in China also makes Australia look appealing.</p>
<p>China has a dual property ownership system that segregates rural and urban land ownership systems. Rural cooperatives own the rural land ownership rights. Cooperative members can only sell to other members of the same rural cooperative.</p>
<p>This limits competition for rural land and keeps rural land prices low. But it also means rural land is an unattractive investment choice for Chinese.</p>
<p>Urban land, on the other hand, remains state owned with a 70 year lease system to housing owners. The system limits ownership of urban residential buildings to people with urban registration or those that have lived in and paid taxes in the same urban area for five consecutive years. This situation stops many Chinese from being able to purchase urban residential property.</p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2015, those who did have the appropriate registration were limited to a maximum purchase of two residential properties within their urban area – one property to live in and one as an investment. This limitation still applies in Beijing.</p>
<p>The limitation was put in place to counteract major housing affordability discontent as an increasing number of people were locked out of the housing market. This problem is exacerbated by the 30% deposit requirement on residential real estate purchases. This combination of factors forces many Chinese investors into purchasing properties on China’s black market where ownership is uncertain or seek investment opportunities outside China.</p>
<p>The Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduced new regulations to tighten the flow of capital from China in November 2016. This agency is tasked with the approval of outgoing overseas payments of more than US$5 million. However, most housing acquisitions in Australia fall below this limit.</p>
<p>From 2017, a new rule was introduced to limit the yearly foreign currency holding to US$50,000 for individual investors..</p>
<p>Larger Chinese development companies operating in Australia are known to sell individual residential units “off the plan” directly to Chinese property investors. Where this is the case, the developer has a vested interest in finding ways to circumvent the new limits on foreign currency holding in order to settle a contract. However, it will take time for developers to adjust their methods.</p>
<p>As house prices increase, rental yields generally fall. This is due to the large amount borrowed by investors compared to what they receive in rental income.</p>
<p>Though rent prices have increased significantly in Melbourne and Sydney, they have not kept pace with house prices. Rental yields have fallen in major cities.</p>
<p>In China, where the rental yield is 1-1.5%, some investors reconsider whether it is worth the effort of renting out their properties. Instead, they rely on the capital gain to create a profit while leaving the property vacant, preventing wear and tear to it. This practice has serious implications for the supply of rental properties in China.</p>
<p>As Australia continues to struggle with escalating house prices and decreasing rental yields, residential real estate investment becomes less attractive as a long term investment for Chinese investors. The reliance on capital gains may result in higher numbers of vacant properties in Australia, counteracting the FIRB’s intentions.</p>
<p>The restrictions enacted by Chinese regulators may slow the flow of money out of China in the short term. However, Chinese investors are likely to find ways to circumvent these restrictions. The lifting of restrictions on Chinese residential property ownership may refocus investment choice location to within China.</p>
<p>Erika Altmann<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/erika-altmann-361218"> </a>is qualitative researcher, University of Tasmania and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/erika-altmann-361218">here</a>.</p>
<p>Zhixuan Yang is lecturer in Real Property Development and Management and author for The Conversation.</p>
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Why Chinese investors find Australian real estate so alluring

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69895/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Foreign reserves at the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), China’s central bank, fell for the fifth consecutive month in November, dropping by US$69.1 billion to US$3.1 trillion. This is a level not seen since 2011, with reserves shrinking more than US$500 billion this year alone.</p>
<p>The Chinese government has moved to clamp down on capital flight, by introducing restrictions on foreign investment and curbing gold imports. But it could go further as the yuan stares down its worst year since 2005, making it harder for Chinese companies to borrow and repay debt. </p>
<p>The decline in China’s foreign reserves is not a blip, but has roots that go deep and could affect the ability of Chinese consumers and companies to be our customers. So the introduction of currency controls, especially if China revisits the quotas for Chinese individuals to spend on foreign goods or travel, is something to watch. </p>
<h2>Why China is bleeding foreign exchange</h2>
<p>The story goes back to August 2015, when China devalued the yuan in an apparent attempt to boost exports and growth. The devaluation probably would not have drawn so much attention if not for the fact that it appeared to trigger a huge outflow of capital from China. </p>
<p>It all has to do with historical patterns of borrowing by Chinese companies (and some wealthy individuals). During the boom years of export-and-investment-led economic growth, investing in China offered a good return (especially compared to what was available in Western economies). China’s shadow banking system grew and flourished – offering even greater returns to Chinese firms and individuals. </p>
<p>At the time it made sense to borrow at near-zero rates in the US and Europe, convert the money to yuan and invest in China. But the Chinese government brought this trade undone when it devalued the yuan back in August 2015. Borrowing in US dollars then selling those dollars to buy yuan-denominated assets no longer works. </p>
<p>It is now happening in reverse – yuan-denominated assets are being sold at record rates to buy US dollars in order to pay back old loans before it becomes too late. This outward flow of yuan generates downward pressure on the Chinese currency, which recently fell to its lowest levels in years. This is creating a feedback loop. </p>
<p>Before 2015, the PBoC bought dollars from Chinese companies that earned export income, printing lots of new yuan to do so. This money then circulated within the Chinese banking system and supplied the credit for China’s huge expansion. </p>
<p>But now the PBoC is selling down its reserves of US dollars to prop up the yuan. This also places pressure on Chinese banks, and may force the PBoC to allow banks to free up more of their available capital. These deteriorating conditions in the banking sector, along with China’s fast-rising private-sector debt, increase the cost of capital and put further pressure on foreign exchange reserves. </p>
<h2>The economy isn’t helping</h2>
<p>Further adding to the pressure since 2015 has been Chinese government encouragement for local companies to “go global”. Often such investments have been supported by subsidised loans or grants from China’s Export-Import Bank (China Exim Bank). At the same time, foreign investment into China has dwindled as labour and other costs have risen. </p>
<p>Both of these phenomena have been part of the Chinese government’s overall strategy of internationalisation, while moving away from an economy dependent on exports and towards an economy based much more on services and domestic consumption. The problem is, however, that the hoped-for rise in domestic consumption has not eventuated at anything like the rate necessary. </p>
<p>A crackdown on luxury consumption – seen as a sign of corruption by senior Communist Party members and officials – has further detracted from the desired growth in domestic consumption. </p>
<h2>What all this means for us</h2>
<p>Even with the restrictions put in place, there isn’t a total yuan lockdown. It is hard to prevent the movement of yuan out of China through the offshore yuan market. The Chinese banking authorities have fewer ways of preventing such transfers, especially as the government pushes the yuan as an alternative to traditional US dollar settlements. </p>
<p>But it’s likely China and its people will be much less able to afford direct purchases of Australian goods (iron ore, coal) and services (education, tourism) in the near future. This does not mean that Chinese demand for Australian goods will fall, but things might have to change. </p>
<p>It means that instead of just “selling stuff” to China, Australia needs to engage with the Chinese economy – to understand what that economy really needs. Australia has know-how and technology in health care, education, agriculture and energy that China needs and wants.</p>
<p>With the limitations of Chinese currency and investment controls, Australia may need to be more generous in its willingness to transfer some of that technology and know-how. For its part, China has to be much better at ensuring that the intellectual property involved in such transfers and the returns from them are properly protected. This could be the start of something brand new.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Alice de Jonge is s</span>enior lecturer, International Law; Asian Business Law, Monash University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alice-de-jonge-118840" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Why capital is fleeing China and what it means for Australia

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69863/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>When it comes to discussions about Chinese real estate investors, we tend to focus on the idea that they are buying up property in places like Australia, pushing up prices – even if that is somewhat questionable.</p>
<p>But it also ignores the other side of the equation. The number of properties built by Chinese developers outside of China has grown significantly, even as residential construction within China slows. </p>
<p>The expansion of Chinese residential development outside China has impacts on a number of levels, from property prices through to regional diplomacy.</p>
<h2>The shift to Asia</h2>
<p>Country Garden, a property development company based in Guangdong, China, is constructing apartment buildings that would add more than half-a-million homes and house 700,000 people in Johor Bahru, in southern Malaysia. This project goes far beyond constructing apartment buildings, however. It is part of an even bigger project named “Forest City” that Country Garden plans to build on four artificial islands. </p>
<p>The idea is that Forest City will be equipped with schools, shopping malls, parks, hotels, office buildings and banks. All ensconced in rich greenery, clean water and a quiet transportation system. </p>
<p>This grand project is just one example of the recent surge of overseas investment by Chinese property developers. Total investment in the Chinese real estate sector was growing at a rate above 10% until 2014, then dropped to less than 1% in 2015. This indicates a significant shift in Chinese real estate investment.</p>
<p>All the while, Chinese investment in the real estate sector overseas has picked up strongly. It has grown from $US0.6 billion in 2009 to US$30 billion in 2015. Several Chinese property developers have identified overseas investment as their main business growth strategy.</p>
<h2>Two reasons for the pivot</h2>
<p>Chinese investors have begun looking offshore for a couple of reasons. </p>
<p>Chinese buyer demand for overseas properties is growing. Since China reformed its economy and started growing at a fantastic rate, households have accumulated significant wealth. They now want to diversify their investment portfolios, and so are seeking property elsewhere. </p>
<p>Volatility in domestic housing prices has intensified this trend, despite various government policies aimed at smoothing out price fluctuations. An oversupply of properties in third and fourth-tier cities such as Ordos and Qinhuangdao created “ghost towns” where property isn’t desirable. In first and second-tier cities, however, prices have skyrocketed. House price-to-income ratios of these cities are ranked highest in the world, making it difficult to invest in properties in China.</p>
<p>In recent years there has been a huge expansion of production capacity. In 2015, China produced 51.3% of the cement and 49.5% of the crude steel in the world. As production capacity grows beyond the demand from the domestic market and runs into overcapacity, it is natural that firms will seek returns overseas. </p>
<h2>The impact of it all</h2>
<p>Taking Country Garden as an example, it is worth noting that the developer is not just building residential property, but designing and constructing the entire infrastructure for a city. Transport, greenery, water and noise control are all being put in place. These are beyond the scope of a conventional property developer. </p>
<p>Therefore, one potential positive impact of this project is to help boost the quality of infrastructure in Johor Bahru and so nurture more business activities in the future. The economic and geographic relationships between Johor Bahru and neighbouring Singapore may develop into one similar to that between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. </p>
<p>It is, however, critical that the local government monitors and enforces strict environmental protection and regulation to ensure the project won’t damage the natural environment or disrupt the local market. </p>
<p>The huge influx of newly built apartments has resulted in the value of residential sales dropping by almost one-third in in Johor Bahru last year. Whether this is a short-run phenomenon and housing prices will rally in the long run depends on whether more business activities and job opportunities can attract population inflow to the city and hence create higher demand for housing. In the short run, the fall in housing prices may lower the cost of living and attract firms and workers into the city.</p>
<p>For the Chinese government, it will be important to nurture more talent with legal and financial expertise to help Chinese property developers go out and invest overseas. This expansion by developers is just one, early facet of China’s new diplomatic efforts to develop infrastructure overseas.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Yixiao Zhou is l</span>ecturer in Economics, Curtin University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yixiao-zhou-320417" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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As its economy changes, China is starting to export its real estate ideas too

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<div>Net permanent and long term migration into Australia seems to be steadying, summimg +266,400 in the year to August, according to the latest ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures figures. </div>
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<div>The number of permanent settlers per annum appears to be very gradually rising again, with 57.1 per cent of settlers hailing from Asia. </div>
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<div>It feels as though annual population growth in 2016 will be tracking at around +1.3 per cent, or somewhere between +300,000 and +350,000. </div>
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<div>However, the composition of growth has changed very significantly since the peak of the mining investment boom in 2012, with Sydney and Melbourne accounting for a record and ever-greater share of the headcount growth. In aggregate, regional population growth has slowed. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Chinese arrivals</span></strong></div>
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<div>More dramatically, total annual short term arrivals increased by a very strong +10.6 per cent over the year to August, to sit at a smidgen under 8 million.</div>
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<div>Outbound trips are still increasing too, but at a far less sprightly pace (in fact the pace of outbound growth is less than half of that of short term arrivals, meaning that a positive rebalancing continues). </div>
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<p>The annual number of Chinese arrivals continues to accelerate at an astonishing pace, increasing by +23.1 per cent over the past year to a new high of 1.18 million. </p>
<div>There are now more annual visitors from China and Hong Kong to Australia than there are from our more proximate neighbour New Zealand. </div>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/10/11/C4.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<div>While many are short term arrivals <em>bona fide</em> tourists, a total of precisely 500,000 short term arrivals into Australia over the year to August were primarily for the purposes of education.</div>
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<div>Higher education is hugely attractive for international students from Asia, since it comes with the lure of potential permanent residency, obviously a big drawcard. </div>
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<div>Note that there are now more than two years of water under the bridge since the higher education boom really teed off in earnest, meaning that over the next year or two there may is likely to be a very strong uplift in students being granted permanent residency (as indeed is forecast by the DIBP) or sundry visa types.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<p>While permanent and long term migration to Australia seems to have levelled out, arguably the more significant trends are taking place beneath the surface. </p>
<div>There is plenty of noise in month-to-month figures, but simply following the trend in the number of monthly visitors from China shows a doubling from less than 50,000 per month in early 2012 to well over 100,000 per month in Q3 2016. </div>
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<div>In terms of the property sector, while it's true that that the incoming wave of Chinese capital most impacts new and off-the-plan properties, there are now so many permanent residents and citizens of Chinese heritage that the impacts have shifted into established property too. </div>
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<em>News</em> draws a tangible link between education arrivals and Chinese property buying activity, notably in inner Sydney suburbs such as Haymarket, Ultimo, Kensington, Surry Hills, Waterloo, and other parts of South Sydney, for example. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Chinese visitors more than double in 4 years: Pete Wargent

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<div>Relax everyone. </div>
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<div>I've been to China for a week, and I've got everything sussed.</div>
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<div>Alright, I'm only joshing, there are of those pieces doing the rounds already, and I don't have too many original insights today.</div>
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<div>The trip did give me some food for thought, however, about the future of Australia's largest capital cities.</div>
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<div>In my home country of England, the capital city London has never really embraced high-rise living.</div>
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<div>But as the Asian Century progresses it seems likely that some Australian cities will increasingly do so. </div>
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<div>Here are a five things that we might expect to see more of...</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Higher construction costs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Construction costs - and particularly land remediation costs - have become more expensive in Australia over time.<br><br>I looked here previously at some of the reasons why.  </div>
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<div>Construction techniques and equipment are relatively cheap in China. And it shows (oops-a-daisy!)...</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Reclaimed land?</span></strong></div>
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<div>In Hong Kong, over the past two decades about 60 square kilometres of additional land has been created, particularly in prime waterfront sites on Victoria Harbour.</div>
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<div>However, legislation has been passed to protect the harbour from encroaching land into the precious and highly valued harbour space.</div>
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<div>We could see some similar trends playing out in Australia.<br><br>Indeed, land reclamation and remediation on the Hungry Mile was an integral part of Lend Lease's flagship Barangaroo project.<br><br>Overall, though, land reclamation on a large scale would likely be opposed in Australia, I feel. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3 - Lagged delivery of infrastsructure</span></strong><br><br><div>One of the most noticeable things in China, particularly when you see the mainland, is that when something needs building...it gets built!</div>
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<div>China needs a bridge - a bridge gets built. China requires a highway or an airport - a highway or an airport gets constructed.</div>
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<div>Perhaps this is one of the benefits of living in a surplus country.</div>
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<div>By contrast the delivery of infrastructure in Australia always seems to lag, sometimes horribly so.<br><br>Left to its own devices, the market seems to focus on building residential dwellings, but not enough other infrastructure.</div>
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<div>And when stuff does eventually get built, people still carp and complain.<br><br>Look at the extremely successful Gold Coast Light Rail project, for example, which notched up a rip-snorting 14 million trips in the year to 30 June ahead of the forthcoming Olympic Games. And people are still whingeing about it!<br><br>Australia's 10 year bond yield recently hit its lowest level in history, so it's potentially a great time to borrow and build.<br><br>But we'll have to wait and see what Prime Minister Turnbull thinks about that, and whether the electorate has the appetite for debt.</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Extreme inner city land prices</span></strong><br><br><div>With a highly concentrated population, prime location development sites in Hong Kong can now be worth up to an extraordinary HK$5 million per square metre.</div>
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<div>Inner Sydney has seen some breathtaking prices paid by Chinese investors and developers in recent years for development sites, but nothing remotely on this scale.</div>
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<div>Sydney's population is only 5 million today, but that number if projected to double over the course of this century. So, one day...</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">5 - Higher density living</span></strong></div>
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<div>We tend to think of Australia's capital cities as being 'dense', essentially because they aren't towns, and because employment tends to be centralised and the traffic is therefore often so bad.<br><br>But with the exception of  handful of suburbs, in global terms Australia's urban populations are in fact anything but dense, as soon as you move away from their central cores. </div>
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<br><div>Even in the largest capital cities in Australia there are plenty of sites which can still be developed for residential dwellings. </div>
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<div>And if land supply is short, we can also build up as well as out.</div>
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<div>China has a number of large cities that provide example of how much denser city living can become over time. </div>
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<div>BTW the term MOAR, as written in the headline, is internet slang and a combination of the words more and roar.</div>
<br><p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Building MOAR high rise: Pete Wargent

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<p>Chinese capital has a huge role to play in Australia's housing market over the next few years, for better or for worse. </p>
<p>But there are some looming obstacles. </p>
<p>New South Wales recently introduced a 4 percent stamp duty surcharge for non-resident buyers, with a 0.75 percent land tax. </p>
<p>Harsh, yes, but not as onerous for apartment buyers as the 7 percent stamp duty surcharge that became effective from 1 July in Victoria, while Queensland has also introduced a 3 percent surcharge. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, banks and brokers fearing investigation have become extremely reluctant to lend to non-resident buyers declaring only foreign income. </p>
<p>With a record volume of apartments due for completion over the next two years, and many of these having been bought off the plan by overseas buyers, one way or another one feels that something has to give. </p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Fork...</span></strong></p>
<p>At this juncture it feels like it could go either way.</p>
<p>We know that Australia (and particularly Melbourne and Sydney) is a favourite destination for Chinese capital. </p>
<p>Across the drink, Vancouver recently introduced a monster 15 percent tax on non-residents which has turned Chinese investors away and is pushing that housing market south. </p>
<p>This could in turn lead more Chinese buyers to look at Australia as the destination for their fleeing capital.</p>
<p>Although prices have gotten more expensive in Australia for local buyers, thanks to foreign exchange movements this is not so for the Chinese. </p>
<p>Unit prices may have increased by 41 percent over the last four years in Sydney, for example, but when translated into CNY prices have not moved up at all in real terms. </p>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Chinese buyers... where to from here? Pete Wargent

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<div>在2018年前，经济学家和房地产专家认为几乎所有澳大利亚首府城市的房价都会上涨。<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>
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<div>然而由于秋季市场让卖家们感到失望，专家们认为他们应该改变之前的预测。<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>
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<div>随着房价的下跌，周转房屋贷款利率的上升，今年春天的房地产市场有很多值得探讨的地方。<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>
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<div>阅读我们的免费电子书，了解您需要知道的有关房地产市场的信息。</div>
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