Property News

There are five reasons to expect a further slowing in the national average home price growth next year, which will follow by a peak in prices sometime in the second half of 2022, and then falling prices in 2023, according to Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital.

"We remain of the view that we may be getting closer to the end of the 25-year bull market in property prices," he said.

He suggests firstly worsening affordability is constraining more buyers. Affordability has long been an issue in the Australian property market, he noted.

"While interest rates are still low the surge in house prices relative to wages has gone hand in hand with a surge in the level of debt relative to incomes. 

"That now means that it takes 8 years to save for a deposit in Sydney and 7 years in Melbourne.

"This is now squeezing out first home buyers yet again (which has seen their share of new housing finance fall from 25% to 18% since December) and increasingly existing owners looking to trade up are being squeezed out as well. 

"This is particularly an issue in Sydney and Melbourne and partly explains their slowing relative to other cities.

Secondly Oliver noted the supply/ demand balance is starting to improve. 

"Supply is on the rise again reflecting pent up selling, the end of lockdowns and high prices. 

"This could start to reverse the chronically low level of listings seen over the last 18 months. 

"More fundamentally strong levels of home building over the last two years following the unit building boom since 2015, combined with the absence of immigrants - which has resulted in a slump in underlying housing demand - have started to see the underlying supply/demand balance come under control," he noted. 

Thirdly Oliver noted rising interest rates will reduce the amount new borrowers can borrow and hence pay for dwellings. 

"Fixed mortgage rates are already on the rise (with several banks increasing them by 0.5% or more) and the RBA is expected to start raising the cash rate (and hence variable mortgage rates) from late next year. Rising interest rates are likely to be a big dampener. 

"The collapse in fixed rates to 2% or less played a big role in the recent boom. 

"Fixed mortgages have accounted for 50% or so of new loans recently, so are far more significant than they used to be in impacting new buyer demand (even though there is no impact on existing fixed borrowers until they roll off current terms which may become an issue next year)," he noted.

Fourthly Oliver noted macro prudential tightening is reducing the amount new borrowers can borrow and pay for homes. 

"So far APRA has told banks to increase the interest rate serviceability buffer they apply to borrowing rates in assessing borrowers from 2.5% to 3% and are now moving to require banks to hold more capital for higher risk loans. 

"The former will reduce the amount borrowers can borrow and the latter will raise the interest rate on or reduce the supply of higher risk loans. 

"Further tightening measures are possible."

Finally Oliver noted a rotation in consumer spending back towards services as reopening occurs (covid and the Omicron variant permitting) may reduce housing demand.

He noted there had been a "sharp loss of momentum since March" as a result of worsening affordability, rising supply, rising rates, macro prudential tightening and some eventual rotation in spending away from housing. 

"We expect a further slowing in home price gains to 5% in 2022, with prices likely to start falling from around September/October next year resulting in a 5 to 10% decline in prices in 2023," he said.



Oliver said the anticipated gradual recovery in immigration may take pressure off capital city prices.

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Five reasons to expect a cooling in the property market: Shane Oliver

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There are just the six houses on what's become known around the world as Ramsay Street, Erinsborough.

And despite all the comings and goings of the residents on the television show, only four of the six at the Vermont South setting have actually been sold over the past 30 years during which the internationally broadcast series, Neighbours has been broadcast.

Two of the four sold on the tightly held Pin Oak Court cul de sac have been bought by an expatriate Neighbours fanatic living in the UK who most recently paid $867,000 in early 2013 to secure his second 'Ramsay Street' house.

Andrew Whitney, who directs a private jet and helicopter charter flight company in the UK, outbid seven for the Pin Oak Court, Vermont South offering.

Also known as 30 Ramsay Street, the home of Jarrod 'Toadie' Rebecchi, it was offered through <a href="https://www.barryplant.com.au/property.cfm?propertyID=2272561" target="_blank">Barry Plant Real Estate</a>.

The former Blackburn North resident bought another Pin Oak Court house 17 years ago before moving to the UK for $238,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27783]

Mr Whitney once told the Herald Sun that he knows the street better than anyone.

"I record every episode of Neighbours," he said.

It was sold by the downsizing vendor Faye Pierce, with the buyer able to join the other court residents who are paid a substantial annual fee by the show's producers in agreeing to avoid changes to their facades without consultation and allowing external regular filming. It has been reported that even a letterbox change could be catastrophic for continuity.

<a href="/property-observer" target="_blank">The four-bedroom home was built with her husband in 1973</a> with its expansive covered rear deck having elevated views over Billabong Park.

Marketed as the 'Neighbours House' at 3 Pin Oak Court, the property's marketing won a 2013 real estate marketing award for the Barry Plant Monash Group.

It was advertised as "Your chance to own a piece of Australian television history!"

The most traded on the street sold at $126,000 in 1984, just before the show began; then in 1999 at $312,580 and then in 2007 at $630,000.

The home of the Robinson family, where much of the early action in the soap took place, is number 6. 

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

The original characters included plumber Max Ramsay (Francis Bell), after whose family the street was named, his migrant wife Maria (Dasha Blahova) and their sons Shane (Peter O'Brien) and Danny (David Clencie).

Widower Jim Robinson (Alan Dale) lived next door with his kids, Paul (Stefan Dennis), Julie (Vikki Blanche), Scott (Darius Perkins/later Jason Donovan) and Lucy (Kylie Flinker), and mother-in-law Helen Daniels (Anne Haddy).

It was launched by the Seven Network on March 18, 1985, but struggled for four months before cancellation, only to be reborn at Channel Ten to then become Australia's longest-running prime time soap, and the second longest in the world behind Britain's Coronation Street.

Neighbours was repackaged debuting on Ten in January 1986 with huge credit to Ten's director of publicity, Brian Walsh, who toured the cast across shopping centres, generating unprecedented interest in afternoon newspapers, with the likes of The Daily Mirror's David Brown securing regular front page exclusives on the latest for Scott and Charlene (Jason Donovan and Kylie Minogue), which television critic Michael Idato once described as one of Australian television's iconic romances, on and off screen.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2881]

One story line through the years was changing the name of the street to Ramsbottom Street. Harold Bishop led a protest against the name change and won.

The median price currently listed by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">CoreLogic RP Data</a> for houses in Vermont South is $815,000. Back in the mid-1980s it was around $119,000.

The last sale prices on Pin Oak are:

<ul>
<li>3 Pin Oak $867,000 2013</li>
	<li>2 Pin Oak $630,000 - 2007</li>
	<li>6 Pin Oak $238,000 - 1998</li>
	<li>1 Pin Oak $235,000 - 1991</li>
	<li>4 Pin Oak $66,950 - 1981</li>
	<li>5 Pin Oak $62,000 - 1978</li>
</ul>
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Not much movement among Neighbours on Pin Oak Court as Ramsay Street celebrates 30 years

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The former NAB banker Lukas Kamay has been sentenced to jail for seven years, three months. The minimum served with be four years, six months.

Kamay was accused of using insider Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) information to make over $7 million by trading in the Australian dollar online over 10 months.

Police alleged Kamay, of Melbourne, used confidential ABS statistics to trade online, betting against foreign exchange derivative movements in the Australian dollar after allegedly being in receipt of national economic, retail trade and labour-force statistics before the normal 11.30am release.

Kamay plead guily to the charges. His accomplice, former ABS analyst Christopher Hill, was sentenced to three years and three months, to serve a minimum of two years.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=600]

Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Hollingworth said it was "the worst instance of insider trading to come before the courts in this country".

Kamay spent some of the proceeds on an apartment in The Block Albert Park.

His headline grabbing Albert Park purchase was the luxury apartment decorated by the runner-up Adelaide twins, Alisa and Lysandra which sold at its April auction for $2,375,000 —<a href="https://www.dinglepartners.com.au/index.cfm?pageCall=property&amp;propertyID=2618525" style="line-height: 1.3em;" target="_blank"> a massive $616,000 above the reserve of $1,759,000</a>. 

The Sunday Herald Sun <a href="https://ow.ly/i/5wuz5/original" target="_blank">uncovered Kamay's $2,375,000 purchase</a>.

<img alt="HS_cover_SUN.jpg" src="https://static.ow.ly/photos/original/5wuz5.jpg" title="HS_cover_SUN.jpg">

Source: Ow.ly

The three bedroom apartment was marketed for Alisa and Lysandra, the former SA police officers, by the Melbourne CBD agents, Anton Wongtrakun and Rochelle Wilson from Dingle Partners.

Apartment 3 at 47 O'Grady Street (feature picture above) was resold mid-2014.

Investors paid $2,375,000 to buy after the televised initial purchase did not proceed to settlement.

The replacement buyers had the apartment advertised for rent at $2,500 a week through Dingle Partners.
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Seven years jail for The Block Albert Park-buying ABS insider trader Lukas Kamay

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GUEST OBSERVER
The dawn of Autumn brings a fresh round of listings to the residential market, as vendors who have been waiting patiently for the holiday season to conclude begin to put their property up for sale.
 Listings in February are up by 50% for houses, 9% for townhouses and 14% for apartments compared to last month, albeit coming from the lowest turnover month of the year.
Increased supply equates to more choice for buyers. While bidding at auctions was strong and nominal prices were higher than last year, many properties in the inner suburbs have seen a decrease in real values since February 2015.
Average house prices in the inner suburbs were down 2% over the rolling quarter. After adjusting for inflation, the worst performer was the inner North, with median prices consistently falling each month since October 2015. Brunswick, Brunswick East and North Melbourne are all on Secret Agent's bust list for three or more rolling quarters. At the other end of the market, real prices in the inner South are on par with the highest point reached in 2015. With only small sale volumes, this statistic might be exaggerated, but it is supported by the underlying trend of rising house prices in this region. 
South Melbourne and Port Melbourne are the best performers, each experiencing four and three consecutive rolling quarters of price growth, respectively.
<a href="/images/2016/03/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-04%20at%201.56.15%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/4/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-04%20at%201.56.15%20PM.png" alt="">
Townhouses saw the biggest drop in price of all property types, down 4.5% over the past three months. This is great news for buyers, who were able to obtain more value for their money. The median price per square metre was down 16.5% to $6,300. Despite being well above the median price per square meter for houses, which currently sits at approximately $5,000 per square metre, this is well below the usual premium charged for the convenience townhouses offer to homeowners.
Apartments are the only market that saw a price increase this quarter compared to last, by nearly 2%. With mortgage rates still at an all-time low, many potential buyers are able to enter the market at the bottom end. Fitzroy is again on our apartment boom list, with Collingwood also joining as a high growth suburb in recent months. On the other hand, CBD apartments continue to fall in value, down 11% in real terms since this time last year. 
This trend is likely to continue as the year progresses and more supply is released to the market. The Melbourne CBD and Southbank areas have both experienced three rolling quarters of price decline. Secret Agent notes that precedents are still being broken at the higher quality end of the market. Our data does not accurately represent this part of the market and it needs to be considered from an observational perspective. Quality has been in short supply in the early parts of 2016. As a result, quality offerings are snapped up quickly once discovered by the general public.
The next few months will help set the tone for the rest of the year. The property market is highly topical at the moment with the expectation of a slow down in the economy. This could bring the debate of a potential bubble burst back into the public arena. However, the latest GDP figures show an economy that is still proving to be resilient. Over the coming months, Secret Agent intends to delve deeper into the economy and look at current expectations for the short to medium term.
Quarterly Scorecard
DEC 2015 - FEB 2016
<a href="/images/2016/03/3/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-03%20at%2012.56.27%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/3/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-03%20at%2012.56.27%20PM.png" alt="" width="851" height="489">
For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Melbourne February house listings up 50 percent from January: Secret Agent

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A Glen Forrest home in Western Australia has been listed for sale with $1.7 million hopes through Trevor Clark at Earnshaws RE.
The <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/117-121-hardey-road-glen-forrest/Property-Details-buy-residential-9079616" target="_blank">117-121 Hardey Road</a>, an early 1900's private estate, was built by local stonemason Job Bailey.
The property sits on 1.24 hectares and features high ceilings, ornate cornices, original wide jarrah floorboards and French doors only 40 minutes drive east of Perth's CBD and is close to the Heritage Walk Trail
In 1995 a large two storey architecturally designed brick and tile addition was completed.
The median price for a home in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Glen Forrest is $585,000</a>, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
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Glen Forrest stone home hits the market

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GUEST OBSERVER
Income inequality is undoubtedly one of the most controversial economic issues of modern societies, with many countries facing incredible differences between those who make more and those who make less. But what is happening across Australian regions?
Although researchers such as Peter Whiteford and Nicholas Biddle have investigated the issue in Australia, there are no official records on income inequality measured consistently across regions of the country – even at national level income inequality measures are rarely available in international comparisons (see for instance, World Bank and OECD data.
This lack of evidence is a clear reflection that income inequality is less conflicted in Australia compared to other countries, as Australia is characterised as having very low rates of poverty and economic segregation, compared to other societies, and a culture of “a fair go”.
However, regardless of the apparent “economic equality” in our society, income inequality is still an important issue to track and analyse. In order to fill the gap on income inequality measures across the country, we have developed a method to approximate Gini coefficients for different Australian regions, including states and local councils.
What we found
At state level, based on our estimates in 2011, the most unequal jurisdiction was NSW (0.42), followed by the Northern Territory (0.40), while the least unequal was Tasmania (0.38), meaning that the gap between the rich and the poor was bigger in NSW than in Tasmania.
However, income distribution varies over time, with the ACT showing the biggest change in income inequality, where the Gini coefficient increased from 0.35 in 2001 to 0.39 in 2011.
<a href="/images/2015/09/28/image-20150925-17697-1y399g4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/09/28/image-20150925-17697-1y399g4.png" alt="">
At sub-state level, within metropolitan areas, we found that the local councils of Burwood, Strathfield, Kogarah and Sydney (all from the Sydney Metropolitan area) had the highest income inequality in the country in 2011, while the local councils of Melton (in Melbourne), Light (in Brisbane), Mallala (in Perth) and Palmerstone (in Darwin) had the lowest income inequality.
In terms of trends in cities, interestingly Perth captured both extremes: while the suburbs of Cottesloe and Subiaco is where income inequality has increased the most, the local council of Perth had the lowest increase in inequality across Australian cities.
<h2>Using the Gini co-efficient</h2>
The Gini is one of the most used indicators for income inequality across the world for its simplicity: a Gini of 0 means that the total income of the region is distributed evenly across all persons of the region, while a Gini of 1 means all income captured by just one person. According to the OECD, in 2012 Australia had a Gini of 0.326, while the US had a Gini of 0.390.
Thus, in order to provide more insights about the effects of the mining boom of the recent decade across Australian regions, we have constructed Gini coefficients for family income reported in the national censuses of 2001 and 2011, across all regions of the country.
Although our measures are not perfect and are subject to some assumptions, including the assumption that 30% of families in the richest income bracket capture 70% of the income in that segment, they do provide a good sign of how income inequality varies across the country and how it has been changing over time.
All Gini coefficients across regions are available here.
<h2>Policy implications</h2>
These income inequality data raise several questions. Are the reasons for income inequality different around the country? Does income inequality affect other factors such as health, as evidenced in the US?
What levels of income inequality are acceptable across Australian regions? And what actions are required to address this? These are the questions policy makers should now tackle.
 
David A. Fleming is researcher, CSIRO and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-a-fleming-110682" target="_blank">here</a>.
Tom Measham is senior research scientist, CSIRO and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/rich-and-poor-which-areas-of-australia-are-most-unequal-42409?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+September+28+2015+-+3499&amp;utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+September+28+2015+-+3499+CID_dbd79abf7855b7f7ffb01ac423d4b749&amp;utm_source=campaign_monitor&amp;utm_term=Rich%20and%20poor%20which%20areas%20of%20Australia%20are%20most%20unequal" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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Rich and poor: which areas of Australia are most unequal?

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<img src="/images/2015/11/26/NEW_RAMS_LOGO.jpg" alt="">
Buying a property alone can be more difficult than buying with someone else but with careful preparation it’s certainly doable. 
You’ll feel a great sense of pride if you do buy a place by yourself. It’s a great achievement, and one that many first home buyers accomplish every year.
Here are some suggestions to get you started:
<ul>
<li>Work out your budget – Remember the costs of buying such as legal fees, stamp duty and removalist charges when you’re saving for your deposit. Don’t forget strata fees, council rates, utility bills, insurance, and repair costs when working out how much you can afford in mortgage repayments.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Get pre-approval – Before you start seriously looking, get pre-approval on a home loan to confirm the amount you can borrow. This might also improve your bargaining position when you come to make an offer. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Plan for the unexpected – What would happen if you lost your job, fell ill and couldn’t work, or if property prices dropped? Consider income protection insurance as may pay a proportion of your wage if you can’t work due to illness or accident. Get home and contents insurance to cover against property damage or theft.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Be realistic – Saving for a deposit may take longer solo and you may not be able to afford as big a mortgage as if you had someone else to help out. Be prepared to make some compromises to buy what you can afford. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Ask for second opinions – enlist friends and relatives to look at properties you’re considering and tell you what they think. They may see shortcomings or benefits you’ve overlooked. Choose people you trust to give fair and constructive opinions.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Seek advice – mortgage brokers, solicitors, financial planners and building inspectors can provide useful input to your decisions. Also, talk to others who have bought property alone about their experiences. </li>
</ul>
Quick tip: Have confidence. Plenty of people do buy property alone.
TO FIND OUT HOW RAMS CAN HELP EASE YOU THROUGH THE PROCESS, GET IN TOUCH WITH YOUR LOCAL RAMS HOME LOAN EXPERT OR DROP IN FOR YOUR <a href="https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/clk/297888911;125002156;k" target="_blank">FREE FIRST HOME BUYERS’ GUIDE</a>.
For more great property advice and tips on buying your first home from RAMS subscribe to <a href="https://ad.doubleclick.net/ddm/clk/297885979;125002157;w" target="_blank">The Great Australian Dream property series</a>.
For your free Property Observer eBook from RAMS, 12 tips for first-time buyers, covering everything you need to know when it comes to purchasing property, <a href="component/content/article?id=48727" target="_blank">click here</a>.
Disclaimer: Information in this material is general and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and you should consider whether it is appropriate for you. You should also obtain independent professional advice relevant to your financial circumstances.
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Tips for buying solo

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A circular Glenelg penthouse with 360 degree views has been listed with price expectations between $1.95 million to $2.145 million.
With 360-degree views over the beach, the <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-sa-glenelg-119374915" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">84/760 Anzac Highway</a> property is 49 sqm and has been listed through Tim and Megan Thredgold at Toop &amp; Toop Real Estate.
The penthouse was last renovated in 2003, winning the Award of Merit at the Architecture Awards.
Designed by Stafford Architects, it was built by the Mossip Group with interior design by Maria Gianquitto.
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Circular Glenelg penthouse on the market

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Reporting all residential property transactions within 24 hours of contracts being exchanged to a central body is just one recommendation Curtis Associates has made in their submission to the inquiry into Home Ownership.
Curtis Associates believes exchanging contacts of buyer and seller, agreed price, improvements made to the property and its cost would help create a fairer housing market in Sydney.
Curtis Associates said that there is an obsession with the drama of auctions and their clearance rates as well a, an obsession with median prices as a measure of market performance. 
"Agents are presently free to choose what data to report, when to report it and more important, what data not to report - especially if it conveys a downbeat impression of the property market.  
"Prices paid at auction are usually higher than those negotiated in a cooler private treaty environment; the latter of which account for about 75% of all transactions per week.  
"The auction results published by APM each Saturday night/Sunday morning exclude mid week auctions and thus account for less than that 25% of all such transactions."  
"It is submitted that comparing movements in raw median prices is like comparing apples with oranges. 
"Acceptance of the practice of keeping some sales prices confidential; the most absurd illustration of which being sellers who assert confidentiality over a price paid at a public auction. 
"For someone attending such an auction, that price is not only freely available, it is often a source of entertainment culminating in applause. For someone later researching the same price remotely, the result is a silent 'Price Withheld'." 
"In the equities market, such discriminatory withholding of information would almost certainly be unlawful." 
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Reporting property transactions to a central body necessary: Curtis Associates

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It's a wonder they are putting anything to air, as Channel 7 network staff seem to all be busy trading up their homes.
It's from the top down too.
The Seven chief executive Tim Worner and his wife, Katrina have spent a near record $9.5 million on Juan Les Pins, an oceanfront reserve Shelley Beach, Manly residence across the road from their Fairy Bower home of 15 years.
It was bought from Oroton director Ross Lane and wife Sara who had paid around $8 million in 2010. They have paid just shy of the $9.6 million Fairy Bower record price.
Meanwhile Sunrise newsreader Natalie Barr and TV editor husband Andrew Thompson have listed their Mosman home in quick time after securing a $3.2 million home nearby.
The family home has four bedrooms with harbour and city views from its master suite.
Surrounded by a towering hedge wall, the property features a rear private terrace with stone bar.
They paid $1.28 million in 2002, the year she became the Sunrise newsreader.
LJ Hooker Mosman agents Geoff Smith and Richard Harding are expecting between $2.5 million and $2.75 million at its March 23 auction.
The house open for inspection was packed when I breezed past Thursday morning given its mild pricing for most Mosman offerings.
Originally from Western Australia, Barr moved to Los Angeles won an Emmy for her work in O.J Simpon's famous car chase.
She joined Seven News in 1994.  
Her Sunrise colleague Mark Berretta similiarly upgraded Mosman homes in 2012 selling for $1.9 million and buying for $2.8 million. 
Of course Natalie will no doubt run into Channel 9 rival morning host Sonia Kruger who's just settled on her $6.475 million Balmoral Slopes acquisition with her partner, Channel 7 television executive Craig McPherson having sold in Warrawee.
The purchase marks Sonia's triumphant return to Mosman as she once had a two bedroom Musgrave Street apartment which was her first home when bought in 1999 for $490,000.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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